Preliminary figures from the first eight months of 2025 reveal a notable shift in Germany’s global trading ties: China has edged ahead of the United States to become Germany’s top trading partner. According to the German Federal Statistical Office, this change comes amid the ripple effects of the Trump administration’s renewed tariff policies, which have noticeably cooled Germany’s exports to the US. From January through August 2025, trade between Berlin and Beijing hit €163.4 billion, just surpassing the €162.8 billion exchanged with the United States.
This development marks a reversal from 2024, when the US briefly reclaimed the top spot after eight years of Chinese dominance in German trade relations. The impact of US tariffs on German exports has been clear and significant, with a 7.4% year-on-year decline in trade volume over the eight months, and a particularly stark 23.5% drop in August alone. Dirk Jandura, president of the BGA foreign trade association, points to US trade policies as the main culprit, noting a waning American demand for German cars, advanced machinery, and critical chemicals.
Yet the story is more layered than just overall trade numbers. While the total volume of trade with China has climbed, Germany’s exports to China have actually shrunk by 13.5%, falling to €54.7 billion in the same period. Meanwhile, imports from China grew sharply by 8.3%, reaching €108.8 billion. This growing trade imbalance raises red flags among analysts and industry leaders who worry about Germany’s growing dependence on Chinese imports.
Carsten Brzeski, ING’s global head of macroeconomic analysis, expresses concern over what he calls a “renewed import boom from China.” He warns that the influx of competitively priced Chinese goods—some suggest dumping prices—could strain German industry, potentially undermining key sectors and making the country more vulnerable to economic shocks tied to a single dominant trading partner. This moment starkly illustrates how swiftly global policies can redraw economic maps, pushing German industry to balance the benefits of growing trade with China against the risks of an unbalanced reliance on imports.
In sum, Germany’s trade landscape in 2025 is in flux, shaped by geopolitical shifts and policy decisions far beyond its borders. The challenge ahead lies in navigating these complex dynamics while safeguarding the resilience of its industries and ensuring a sustainable balance in global trade.
