NASA has issued a warning about a potential asteroid impact with Earth, with the odds of collision increasing to 2.3%. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was first detected in late December 2023 and has since risen to the top of both NASA and ESA's impact risk lists.
Initially, the estimated chance of impact was only 1.3%, but recent observations have increased the probability. The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, making it comparable in size to the Tunguska asteroid that devastated a Siberian forest in 1908.
While the odds of impact are still low, 2024 YR4 currently poses the greatest threat to Earth among known asteroids. Astronomers are closely monitoring its trajectory, and the impact probability is expected to change as more data is collected.
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the impact could cause significant damage. The potential impact zone stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
NASA and ESA are actively studying the asteroid's trajectory and are considering potential mitigation strategies, such as using a kinetic impactor to deflect the asteroid's path. The DART mission, successfully conducted in 2022, demonstrated the feasibility of this approach.