NASA has identified a new asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, currently topping the list of potential collision risks with Earth. While the chances of impact are low, the scientific community is closely monitoring its trajectory and potential implications.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). Following its discovery, it was determined that, although currently moving away from Earth, it is expected to resume a trajectory that could bring it dangerously close to our planet in December 2028. With an estimated diameter of 55 meters, a potential impact would release energy equivalent to 8 megatons, more than 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Initial calculations indicate a 1.2% chance of impact in 2032, specifically on December 22. However, up to six potential impact dates have been identified between 2032 and 2074. It's important to note that these probabilities can change as more information is gathered and the asteroid's orbit is refined.
According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the initially calculated impact probabilities can vary. Based on current data, it is estimated that the asteroid could impact Earth at a speed of 17.32 kilometers per second if it ultimately occurs.
On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures the danger posed by asteroids, 2024 YR4 has been classified at level 3. This means it requires the attention of astronomers, but a collision with Earth is not certain. In fact, new telescopic observations are expected to allow it to be reclassified to level 0, meaning no danger.
It's worth mentioning that the only asteroid to have achieved a higher classification on the Torino scale is 99942 Apophis, which in 2004 reached level 4. Fortunately, the risk of impact from this space rock has been ruled out for the next 100 years.
Although 2024 YR4 currently tops the collision risk list, NASA does not consider it a terminal threat at this time. The asteroid's characteristics, such as its speed, magnitude, and mass, can change as scientists continue to monitor its trajectory. The situation could become less threatening, but it could also become more alarming, so the US entity and others like the ESA will continue to track the asteroid.
It is crucial that scientists continue to monitor the sky for objects that could pose a threat to humanity, as in this case we are discussing (however low the probabilities may be). NASA demonstrated in 2024 its ability to redirect an asteroid, a skill we hope never to have to use, but it is reassuring to know that it exists.
In summary, while asteroid 2024 YR4 presents a low probability of impact with Earth, its constant monitoring is essential to ensure planetary safety. The scientific community remains vigilant and continues to develop strategies to mitigate potential future threats.