Turkey has positioned itself as a supporter of Palestinians and a critic of Israel, particularly following the recent escalation in violence in the Middle East. Concerns have grown among multiple nations regarding the potential for increased conflict in the region after Iran's latest attacks on Israel.
In response to Hamas's attacks on October 7, 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused Israel of 'genocide' and emphasized that he does not view Hamas as a terrorist organization, often referring to his 'Palestinian brothers.'
Despite Erdoğan's alarming rhetoric, experts suggest that the likelihood of Turkish military involvement in the conflict remains low. Political analyst Celine Nasi from the London School of Economics argues that Erdoğan's claims are unrealistic, noting Turkey's NATO membership and the lack of justification for an Israeli attack on Turkey.
Erdoğan's statements may be aimed at strengthening his domestic political position amid economic challenges and declining support since local elections. However, according to Emeritus Professor Altan Turan, Turkey is unlikely to actively participate in the conflict, as it seeks to maintain its relationship with Iran while avoiding direct confrontation with Israel.
The complex relationship between Turkey and Iran is characterized by competition tempered by mutual respect. Former Turkish ambassador to Qatar, Mithat Rende, notes that both nations continue to compete, but Turkey is cautious about Iran's influence in the region, particularly through non-state actors.
Religious and political differences underpin the geopolitical dynamics between Turkey and Iran, with Turkey primarily supporting Sunni groups like Hamas, while Iran aligns with Shiite factions. This divergence is reflected in Erdoğan's selective expressions of condolence following the deaths of key figures from both groups.