The U.S. Space Force anticipates a significant increase in launch activity from its continental spaceports over the next two years, driven by the growing demand for military, civil, and commercial payloads in space.
According to Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive office for assured access to space at Space Systems Command (SSC), the Space Force has seen a steady rise in launch cadence, with an estimated 25% to 30% increase per year. This trend is expected to continue for at least the next couple of years.
In 2024, a total of 263 orbital launch attempts were recorded globally, with the Space Force contributing 144 launches from its facilities at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, and Vandenberg Space Force Base, California. Of these, 93 launches originated from Cape Canaveral and 51 from Vandenberg.
The Space Force is also responsible for launching payloads under its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. In 2024, five NSSL missions were launched, with four taking off from Cape Canaveral and one from Vandenberg. For 2025, the Space Force expects to support 18 NSSL-related launches, with 11 planned on a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Vulcan space vehicle and seven on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
The certification of ULA's Vulcan rocket for NSSL missions is still pending, following two certification flights in January and October 2024. An anomaly during the October launch, involving the release of a nozzle on one of the rocket's solid rocket boosters, is currently under investigation. The certification process is expected to be completed by the end of February, depending on the duration of the anomaly investigation.
The global launch market is undergoing a transformation, with commercial partners increasingly dominating the sector. This shift presents challenges for the Space Force in maintaining a sustainable operational tempo, particularly in terms of manpower. The service is addressing this issue through automation and process streamlining, but the increased launch activity continues to strain operational personnel.