An asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a greater than 2 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2032. The asteroid, which could be up to 100 meters wide, was discovered recently and is currently being closely monitored by astronomers.
Astronomers use telescopes to track asteroids and calculate their orbits. By observing an asteroid's position over time, they can determine its trajectory and predict its future path. This process relies on Kepler's laws of planetary motion, which describe the elliptical paths of objects orbiting the sun.
The more observations of an asteroid, the more accurate its predicted path becomes. However, even with advanced technology, there is always some uncertainty in these predictions. The farther into the future we try to predict an asteroid's position, the greater the margin of error.
The odds of an impact are calculated by simulating the asteroid's orbit and determining if it will intersect Earth's path. While the current odds for 2024 YR4 are relatively low, they could change as more observations are made. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth and is expected to fade from view in late April.
The good news is that new telescopes, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and NASA's NEO Surveyor, are being developed to improve our ability to detect and track asteroids. These telescopes will help us to better understand the potential threat posed by near-Earth objects and give us more time to prepare for any potential impacts.