Discovered on December 27th by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4 has sparked concern among space agencies. While initially detected at over twice the distance between Earth and the Moon, this object, estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters in size, poses a potential impact risk.
After a month of observation, NASA and ESA data converge: the probability of a collision with Earth on December 22, 2032, exceeds 1%, with NASA citing a 1 in 83 chance and ESA a 1 in 88 chance.
Classified as level 3 on the Torino Scale, which assesses the impact risk of asteroids, 2024 YR4 signifies a need for close monitoring. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has prioritized its study. A meeting on January 28th, led by NASA and involving experts like ESA's Richard Moissl and astrophysicist Patrick Michel, discussed next steps.
The asteroid's trajectory remains uncertain. Further observations during its next close approach to Earth in 2028 are crucial. If the impact probability remains high, a deflection mission or even a targeted evacuation might be considered.