Ukraine has significantly escalated its drone campaign, targeting Russia's vital oil and gas infrastructure. These strategic strikes have crippled approximately 17% of Russia's oil refining capacity, disrupting over 1.1 million barrels per day. The attacks, which intensified in August 2025, have coincided with peak seasonal demand for fuel, exacerbating domestic shortages and driving up prices across Russia.
Multiple Russian refineries, including facilities in Volgograd, Ryazan, Rostov, Samara, and Krasnodar regions, have been hit, with some experiencing significant damage and operational halts. The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast suffered extensive fires following a drone strike on August 21, with the blaze continuing for days. The Syzran refinery in Samara Oblast was critically affected, with key equipment destroyed, rendering it inoperable. These targeted attacks are part of Ukraine's broader strategy to undermine Russia's economic capabilities and its ability to fund the ongoing conflict.
The Ukrainian military estimates that such long-range strikes have already cost Russia approximately $74.1 billion, representing 4.11% of its projected GDP for 2025. In response to the escalating domestic fuel crisis, the Russian government implemented a ban on gasoline exports on August 24, 2025, initially until the end of August and later extended through September. This measure aims to stabilize the domestic market, which has seen gasoline prices surge by approximately 25% since the beginning of 2025, with some reports indicating increases of up to 50% over the summer period. Wholesale prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline reached record highs in late August, surpassing previous peaks from 2023.
The impact of these disruptions is being felt across various regions of Russia. Fuel shortages and restrictions have been reported in several areas, including the Kuril Islands, Primorye, Zabaykalsky Krai, and occupied Crimea. In the Kuril Islands, sales of AI-92 gasoline to the public were temporarily suspended, with a strict limit of 10 liters per person imposed to prioritize essential services. These shortages have led to long queues at gas stations and a shift to more expensive fuel alternatives.
Experts suggest that the increased frequency and accuracy of Ukrainian drones, coupled with Russia's difficulties in repairing damaged infrastructure due to Western sanctions on equipment imports, are creating a challenging environment for the Russian energy sector. The systematic nature of these strikes, with Ukraine aiming to damage refineries faster than they can be repaired, poses a significant threat to Russia's industrial capacity and its economic stability. The situation highlights the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the profound impact of asymmetric warfare on national economies.